Shutdown: How Covid Shook the World's Economy
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- Author：Adam Tooze
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Summary
This book's great service is that it challenges us to consider the ways in which our institutions and systems， and the assumptions， positions and divisions that undergird them， leave us ill prepared for the next crisis。--Robert Rubin， The New York Times Book Review
Deftly weaving finance， politics， business， and the global human experience into one tight narrative， a tour-de-force account of 2020， the year that changed everything--from the acclaimed author of Crashed。
The shocks of 2020 have been great and small， disrupting the world economy， international relations and the daily lives of virtually everyone on the planet。 Never before has the entire world economy contracted by 20 percent in a matter of weeks nor in the historic record of modern capitalism has there been a moment in which 95 percent of the world's economies were suffering all at the same time。 Across the world hundreds of millions have lost their jobs。 And over it all looms the specter of pandemic， and death。
Adam Tooze， whose last book was universally lauded for guiding us coherently through the chaos of the 2008 crash， now brings his bravura analytical and narrative skills to a panoramic and synthetic overview of our current crisis。 By focusing on finance and business， he sets the pandemic story in a frame that casts a sobering new light on how unprepared the world was to fight the crisis， and how deep the ruptures in our way of living and doing business are。 The virus has attacked the economy with as much ferocity as it has our health， and there is no vaccine arriving to address that。
Tooze's special gift is to show how social organization， political interests， and economic policy interact with devastating human consequences， from your local hospital to the World Bank。 He moves fluidly from the impact of currency fluctuations to the decimation of institutions--such as health-care systems， schools， and social services--in the name of efficiency。 He starkly analyzes what happened when the pandemic collided with domestic politics （China's party conferences; the American elections）， what the unintended consequences of the vaccine race might be， and the role climate change played in the pandemic。 Finally， he proves how no unilateral declaration of 'independence or isolation can extricate any modern country from the global web of travel， goods， services， and finance。
Deftly weaving finance， politics， business， and the global human experience into one tight narrative， a tour-de-force account of 2020， the year that changed everything--from the acclaimed author of Crashed。
The shocks of 2020 have been great and small， disrupting the world economy， international relations and the daily lives of virtually everyone on the planet。 Never before has the entire world economy contracted by 20 percent in a matter of weeks nor in the historic record of modern capitalism has there been a moment in which 95 percent of the world's economies were suffering all at the same time。 Across the world hundreds of millions have lost their jobs。 And over it all looms the specter of pandemic， and death。
Adam Tooze， whose last book was universally lauded for guiding us coherently through the chaos of the 2008 crash， now brings his bravura analytical and narrative skills to a panoramic and synthetic overview of our current crisis。 By focusing on finance and business， he sets the pandemic story in a frame that casts a sobering new light on how unprepared the world was to fight the crisis， and how deep the ruptures in our way of living and doing business are。 The virus has attacked the economy with as much ferocity as it has our health， and there is no vaccine arriving to address that。
Tooze's special gift is to show how social organization， political interests， and economic policy interact with devastating human consequences， from your local hospital to the World Bank。 He moves fluidly from the impact of currency fluctuations to the decimation of institutions--such as health-care systems， schools， and social services--in the name of efficiency。 He starkly analyzes what happened when the pandemic collided with domestic politics （China's party conferences; the American elections）， what the unintended consequences of the vaccine race might be， and the role climate change played in the pandemic。 Finally， he proves how no unilateral declaration of 'independence or isolation can extricate any modern country from the global web of travel， goods， services， and finance。
Reviews
Evan Agovino
，
I forgot to add this when I read it but here’s my copy and pasted ‘review’ that I posted on Ezra Klein’s DiscordIm about 80% done with the Tooze book。 I thought a large part of it wasn’t too valuable， the first 100 pages or so basically recounted the initial process of how covid hit， and another section went in detail about how the vaccines were developed。 I thought the section about Powell’s monetary response was fascinating and a good primer on modern macroeconomics， which I’m still trying to I forgot to add this when I read it but here’s my copy and pasted ‘review’ that I posted on Ezra Klein’s DiscordIm about 80% done with the Tooze book。 I thought a large part of it wasn’t too valuable， the first 100 pages or so basically recounted the initial process of how covid hit， and another section went in detail about how the vaccines were developed。 I thought the section about Powell’s monetary response was fascinating and a good primer on modern macroeconomics， which I’m still trying to completely wrap my head around。 The parts about different monetary strategies from different countries were interesting at points but they weren’t terribly well-written IMO， just felt as though he was listing off different countries and what they did but it was pretty dense and hard to follow exactly what he was going for。 The structure of the book felt rushed， understandably so I guess given the topic but I value his analysis more than the details if that makes sense - the sections of the podcast where they compared central banks across different countries and using the global covid response as a predictor of the global climate change response with Ezra framing each accordingly。 I haven’t read any of his other work besides his recent blog posts and podcast appearances but he’s clearly an extraordinary thinker and researcher - just not sure this book was as well conceived as I would have hoped 。。。more
Peter Vegel
，
Studying current events is notoriously hard。 We don't have the advantage of historians who can look with cool distance at their study object。 The passing of time can filter out the elements that eventually have proved to be most important to explain a certain turn of events。 Adam Tooze， as in his earlier work Crashed， did not have the advantage of time on his side。 The book follows events as they are unfolding under the author's eyes。 Reading this book， therefore， is a great way to revisit those Studying current events is notoriously hard。 We don't have the advantage of historians who can look with cool distance at their study object。 The passing of time can filter out the elements that eventually have proved to be most important to explain a certain turn of events。 Adam Tooze， as in his earlier work Crashed， did not have the advantage of time on his side。 The book follows events as they are unfolding under the author's eyes。 Reading this book， therefore， is a great way to revisit those crucial moments of 2020 that shook at the foundations of our modern world and economy。 There are interesting bits on vaccine politics， the shift away from austerity politics in Europe and the opposite reaction of China， how emerging economies have been integrated into the "Wall Street consensus" and how that affected their response to the fallout of the global pandemic， 。。。 just to name a few。 。。。 But it took a good 100 pages for the book to dive into these more interesting parts of this "polycrisis"。 Conclusion: reading this book too often just feels like rehashing the news from that time that you were supposed to have been watching or reading yourself （but didn't because you wanted to avoid having to face a global meltdown）。 Tooze makes some good observations and criticism on these events but this often felt few and far between to merit a higher score than a 3*。 。。。more
David Walia
，
No era lo que buscaba。 Pensé que sería un libro sobre los efectos del COVID en las cadenas de suministros， economía mundial， sociedad。。。 que expliacara cómo estuvimos al borde del "Apagón" durante la pandemia。 En vez de eso， el libro es una diatriba contra el capitalismo， contra Trump， contra Bolsonaro， Boris Johnson。。。 las citas de referencia a sus argumentos son en la mayor parte de las veces recortes de periódicos （de artículos de opinión）。 Articula en ocasiones aseveraciones que las da por c No era lo que buscaba。 Pensé que sería un libro sobre los efectos del COVID en las cadenas de suministros， economía mundial， sociedad。。。 que expliacara cómo estuvimos al borde del "Apagón" durante la pandemia。 En vez de eso， el libro es una diatriba contra el capitalismo， contra Trump， contra Bolsonaro， Boris Johnson。。。 las citas de referencia a sus argumentos son en la mayor parte de las veces recortes de periódicos （de artículos de opinión）。 Articula en ocasiones aseveraciones que las da por ciertas， asume que son verdades， y son solo su opinión o， cuando menos， asuntos muy matizables。 Se nota que el autor es "leftist"， defensa a ultranza de Biden， del modelo chino。。。 y luego hablando más tiempo del ecologismo， de Greta Tumberg o del Black Lives Matters que del COVID， ¿a qué viene todo eso？ Un libro muy sesgado hacia la izquierda pero que al final me lo he acabado por ver "otras opiniones"， aunque， reitero， no me ha gustado。 。。。more
Matthew Gallant
，
The overview and conclusions are fascinating， but the main thrust of this book got a bit lost in the wonkish reeds for me。
Dan Seitz
，
Already eclipsed by current events （the Chinese government already has lost quite a bit of the swagger it had in 2020） Tooze nevertheless offers a compelling perspective on the last year or so， although he doesn't strike a comforting note。 Already eclipsed by current events （the Chinese government already has lost quite a bit of the swagger it had in 2020） Tooze nevertheless offers a compelling perspective on the last year or so， although he doesn't strike a comforting note。 。。。more
Roland Glotzer
，
While the book is thorough and well documented， it is more of a narrative of events than an analysis of actions taken and policies being implemented。 Maybe an exciting read for an economist but was somewhat boring for me。
obs20
，
An important book about a difficult time。An important read for those with some exposure to history and economics。 When asked about the book I find that many are even more confused and complain that I am making covid and economics more complicated than it should be。I enjoyed Tooze's other books and he remains one of my favorite authors。 It's always hardest to understand the present。 An important book about a difficult time。An important read for those with some exposure to history and economics。 When asked about the book I find that many are even more confused and complain that I am making covid and economics more complicated than it should be。I enjoyed Tooze's other books and he remains one of my favorite authors。 It's always hardest to understand the present。 。。。more
Marc
，
Deeply disappointing。 This book was sold as a Crashed for the COVID era。 One of the key virtues of Crashed was that it disentangled the intertwining causes， effects and responses of the GFC in a manner that gave you some real understanding of what it all meant。 Shutdown fails to do this。 At its best， it hints at the key areas of analysis - great power competition， the Anthropocene， technocracy - but doesn’t do much more than gesture at them before getting back to the easier task of listing vario Deeply disappointing。 This book was sold as a Crashed for the COVID era。 One of the key virtues of Crashed was that it disentangled the intertwining causes， effects and responses of the GFC in a manner that gave you some real understanding of what it all meant。 Shutdown fails to do this。 At its best， it hints at the key areas of analysis - great power competition， the Anthropocene， technocracy - but doesn’t do much more than gesture at them before getting back to the easier task of listing various policies and the large numbers with which they are associated。In addition to this， Tooze is quite quick to editorialise around Western leaders or programmes but is almost absurdly deferential with regards to China and， when discussing the subject of the Sputnik vaccine， Russia。 Official figures from these countries are accepted in a pretty credulous manner and any slight criticism is always couched as coming from Western critics or Trumpists。 I never had Prof Tooze down as the kind of leftist who so despises the establishment in liberal democracies that they would lose their head about dictatorships， but this gives me pause for thought。 It reads like he has a visa application awaiting approval and he doesn’t want to spook anyone。The book begins and ends with a fair amount of navel-gazing about writing history whilst living through it。 On the evidence of this book， it may have been better to wait。 。。。more
Justin Bumstead
，
Timely and insightfulAn excellent look at the broader arcs of history and that challenges we will need to come to terms with in the coming years
Duncan
，
Big fan of Mr。 Tooze。 This is not his best work， nothing here felt especially revolutionary or enlightening。 That said， if you're looking for a comprehensive overview of how 2020 acted as a springboard for the larger Sino-Western battle brewing， Shutdown does a fantastic job of putting the Wests' struggles in perspective when compared to our Sino-counterparts。 Good Topics:- Discussion around near-death experience in the Treasury markets- Looming China/West conflictNot-as-good-Topics:- Political Big fan of Mr。 Tooze。 This is not his best work， nothing here felt especially revolutionary or enlightening。 That said， if you're looking for a comprehensive overview of how 2020 acted as a springboard for the larger Sino-Western battle brewing， Shutdown does a fantastic job of putting the Wests' struggles in perspective when compared to our Sino-counterparts。 Good Topics:- Discussion around near-death experience in the Treasury markets- Looming China/West conflictNot-as-good-Topics:- Political environment during this time- Trumpism 。。。more
Edmund Wigley
，
Compared with his previous work， this book feels somewhat rushed and more descriptive than his usual analytical style。 However， the amount of detail he records just impresses how momentous the last 12 months have been and that he does not need to draw conclusions necessarily as they are so self evident。If this book had a catch line it would be “we can afford anything we can actually do”。 Technology and new economic theory allowed nations to rapidly transform their societies to limit the spread o Compared with his previous work， this book feels somewhat rushed and more descriptive than his usual analytical style。 However， the amount of detail he records just impresses how momentous the last 12 months have been and that he does not need to draw conclusions necessarily as they are so self evident。If this book had a catch line it would be “we can afford anything we can actually do”。 Technology and new economic theory allowed nations to rapidly transform their societies to limit the spread of the virus and prevent market crises。 And so， enabled by these tools， he drives his central tenets; we are coming to the end of the neoliberal experiment， market-driven policies have failed （just-in-time hospitals） and that monetary policy will be made more and more in conjunction with all other policy。Although I can see why some complain he pushed this out to quickly （May 2021 the story finishes）， his thesis is mostly about the economic reaction to the shutdown rather than the shutdown itself and how much has happened since that would have really changed the message？ 。。。more
Brigitte Pawliw-Fry
，
As always I appreciate Tooze's analysis and history writing in the present - it's an extremely gripping book and worthwhile just for Tooze's comparisons to 2008 As always I appreciate Tooze's analysis and history writing in the present - it's an extremely gripping book and worthwhile just for Tooze's comparisons to 2008 。。。more
Melinda
，
So bizarre to be reading a book about something we are all Still living through。 The ripples from this Covid pebble will be spreading for years toCome。 Really interesting read。
Mahmoud Itani
，
Very informational when it comes to decisions made on fiscal and monetary policy。
Isak Houe
，
3+
Steve Bowbrick
，
This is the stuff - rip-roaring history told while it's all still happening。 Only Tooze can make the work of central bank committees and bond markets and supply chains thrilling。 If you read 'Crashed' you'll recognise the ambition - putting contemporary events into the big picture， longue durée etc。 The populist turn， the exhaustion of neoliberalism， capitalism's failure to manage huge， systemic risks， what Covid teaches us about how the climate crisis will unfold…What I learnt from this book:* This is the stuff - rip-roaring history told while it's all still happening。 Only Tooze can make the work of central bank committees and bond markets and supply chains thrilling。 If you read 'Crashed' you'll recognise the ambition - putting contemporary events into the big picture， longue durée etc。 The populist turn， the exhaustion of neoliberalism， capitalism's failure to manage huge， systemic risks， what Covid teaches us about how the climate crisis will unfold…What I learnt from this book:* The global monetary system's response to Covid has been surprisingly successful。 Lessons from the financial crisis were learnt， the urgency of this crisis and the scale of the risk recognised quickly。 With a handful of exceptions central banks and treasuries everywhere responded briskly and cooperatively。 Huge sums of money flooded into the system via bond purchases， swap lines， loan facilities。 The repertoire is familiar from the 2008 crash but the scale is unrecognisably vast - some interventions were 100 times bigger than their equivalents from a decade ago。 Tooze is especially impressed by the response of the developing world， where inventive solutions and bold interventions kept even struggling economies afloat - often in defiance of the elected elite - see South Africa and Brazil。* On the other hand - and fascinatingly - the pandemic response was almost everywhere weak， politicised and chaotic。 Important lessons here about the inability of legislators and governments to see beyond short-term electoral concerns。 In the developed world at least （but also in some parts of the developing world - Brazil for instance） economic support for businesses and workers was good but the virus itself has met such a patchy， contingent and politically partial response （e。g。 also in Brazil！） that it's enormously revealing about the state's potential to manage huge， existential challenges。 tl;dr - doesn't look good。* The worst failure and the one that will haunt humanity for longest， prolonging the pandemic and increasing the deathtoll immeasurably， is the failure to vaccinate the poorest people。 As I write this only 3% of Africans have had two jabs。 Huge sums were invested in the vaccine effort， particularly by the US government via its Warp Speed programme， but if anything like the quantum poured into sustaining the bond markets had been committed to manufacturing and distributing vaccines to the world， the pandemic would already be a shadow of the catastrophe it has become。 At least five million are now dead worldwide （October 2021）。 This is an epic failure of solidarity and care for others but also a disaster for the world economy which will take years longer to recover as a result。One interesting aspect of the book is that Tooze has decided to 'come off the fence' about the fate of neoliberalism， something he carefully avoided in 'Crashed' （in a way which many people thought was a bit odd）。 He has concluded that it would be anachronistic not to take a position on the subject this time around and his conclusion is that， at least as a body of economic thought "Neoliberalism has really ruptured。 The coherence of that body of thought is now shot to pieces — manifestly a regime in crisis。" The scale of the Covid challenge （and of global warming behind it） makes the absurdity of expecting markets （corporations but also insurers， lenders， capital markets…） to manage globe-spanning crises like these very plain。 This is the state's time to shine。 。。。more
Bruce
，
required reading for the macroeconomics stemming from covid's global upheavals and the remapping of our financial institutions going forward required reading for the macroeconomics stemming from covid's global upheavals and the remapping of our financial institutions going forward 。。。more
Emma
，
A blow by blow recount of the year 2020 as it pertains to covid and it's aftermath。 Still too recent to be interesting to contemporaries， but in a few decades might be interesting。 Weaved a lot of politics into the book which felt out of place and gratuitous， the green new deal was mentioned a lot which the author lamented would have solved a lot of issues， and it was unsure how that's related to covid。 A blow by blow recount of the year 2020 as it pertains to covid and it's aftermath。 Still too recent to be interesting to contemporaries， but in a few decades might be interesting。 Weaved a lot of politics into the book which felt out of place and gratuitous， the green new deal was mentioned a lot which the author lamented would have solved a lot of issues， and it was unsure how that's related to covid。 。。。more
Hunter
，
A very good， and insightful book， with its biggest downside simply being that。。。 we aren't though this all yet。 A very good， and insightful book， with its biggest downside simply being that。。。 we aren't though this all yet。 。。。more
Henry
，
7。5/10
Grant
，
A very solid mix of history and analysis that's at its best when Tooze is being incisive but， well， being an economics history book， for some of us it may be a bit dry at times。 That's not to say it's a dense textbook。While this is hardly a book of leftist polemic， the book might feel fresher if you're not already appropriately cynical about US politics and the GOP in particular， more or less a believer in Keynesian economics/MMT， and more of a realist about China rather than a 'new Cold War' ty A very solid mix of history and analysis that's at its best when Tooze is being incisive but， well， being an economics history book， for some of us it may be a bit dry at times。 That's not to say it's a dense textbook。While this is hardly a book of leftist polemic， the book might feel fresher if you're not already appropriately cynical about US politics and the GOP in particular， more or less a believer in Keynesian economics/MMT， and more of a realist about China rather than a 'new Cold War' type。 Recounting the history and shading in some conclusions， Tooze paints a pretty compelling picture of Western political calcification， unwillingness to fully accept 'money isn't real' and the true power of central banks， and fault lines between putative allies and partners that contrasts sharply with the imperfect but more coherent Chinese approach。Simon Vance's narration is lovely and appropriately rich enough to seem scholarly without being obsequious or sounding too posh， and his pronunciations of people and place names are commendable。 。。。more
Jeff Kaye
，
I read Adam Tooze's Chartbrook newsletters and devoured Crashed， a superb book。 Shutdown is no less important a read， although far more topical。 Shutdown is about the challenge of Covid19 to a world still shaking from the 2008 financial and mired by extraordinary political uncertainties - Trump， Brexit， Middle East， Turkey / Erdogan and many others。 It is also a story about how the vaccine was developed in the west， China and Russia but how poorer countries have been expelled from the use of tha I read Adam Tooze's Chartbrook newsletters and devoured Crashed， a superb book。 Shutdown is no less important a read， although far more topical。 Shutdown is about the challenge of Covid19 to a world still shaking from the 2008 financial and mired by extraordinary political uncertainties - Trump， Brexit， Middle East， Turkey / Erdogan and many others。 It is also a story about how the vaccine was developed in the west， China and Russia but how poorer countries have been expelled from the use of that vaccine and， although some funds and loan were forthcoming， they remain under the cosh of the virus。The world's institutions are shown to be seriously imperfect。 This may have already been known but the virus triggered a technological response which was required and successful but the ultimate use of technology， as Tooze so wisely shows， has been variable in the extreme。 The dominant sign of the times is that the west and the incredible rise of China is unhinging the world along with its pummelling of nature （from a standpoint of environment as well as diseases）。 The world is in a mess despite its greater wealth， so unequally split across the world and within nations。 It is a situation that is worsening and Tooze shows how， in times of great stress， such as the Covid19 pandemic， the world's institutions are unable to bring together public and private partnerships to resolve it。 My impression is of a world divided into so many groupings， many antipathetic to working with each other （notably the Republicans in the US， which Tooze rightly demonizes as incapable of imaginings vistory on democratic grounds and focused purely on division and remapping the US into non-democratic fiefdoms）。 "We ain't seen nothing yet" is his final statement。 We have seen a lot， of course， much if it completely unedifying but Tooze is right to express his concern that the future offers so many uncertainties （natural， human-made and the combination of the two allied to human frailties that come to the fore throughout） that， while we may learn lessons from the past， the future will make us forget many and forge its own path。 。。。more
Lisa Bakazias
，
Written by Professor Adam Tooze， the book gave a very detailed and thorough review of how countries around the world approached the coronavirus， the vaccine development & testing， and how global economies addressed the economic fall-out。 He gave a good understanding of the true interconnectedness and instability of our global economies & politics。 With some subtle comical author biases。 The last chapter was brilliant in making the reader think about just where we are in our Anthropocene age。 Tha Written by Professor Adam Tooze， the book gave a very detailed and thorough review of how countries around the world approached the coronavirus， the vaccine development & testing， and how global economies addressed the economic fall-out。 He gave a good understanding of the true interconnectedness and instability of our global economies & politics。 With some subtle comical author biases。 The last chapter was brilliant in making the reader think about just where we are in our Anthropocene age。 That instead of spending billions on technology and then trillions on economic fall-out， we should be spending trillions on global technology to address this century’s pending issues。 This chapter discusses the solidification of China’s economic power and the decline of America’s power。 And globally， crisis management on an ever larger and ad hoc scale will become the norm。 His last words…。“We ain’t seen nothing yet。” This chapter is worth a read several times over。 。。。more
Nader Rizkalla
，
“Could you trust a vaccine produced in a country where basic information about the seriousness of the epidemic was suppressed？”Ironically， Tooze statement here does not refer to China！This example illustrates the biased view of the author who is very selective in choosing facts about the epidemic which glorify China’s communist Party and undermines almost everybody else。And for the readers: “could you trust a writer who is deliberately neglecting facts？” As a historian who knows nothing about me “Could you trust a vaccine produced in a country where basic information about the seriousness of the epidemic was suppressed？”Ironically， Tooze statement here does not refer to China！This example illustrates the biased view of the author who is very selective in choosing facts about the epidemic which glorify China’s communist Party and undermines almost everybody else。And for the readers: “could you trust a writer who is deliberately neglecting facts？” As a historian who knows nothing about medicine， the least Tooze could do is to consult medical experts before making a judgement about which vaccine is effective and which is not。In my area of expertise， I know that many of Tooze statements are false- why would I trust him in the rest？ 。。。more
T
，
Been dipping in and out as the book in my bag for breaks and 10m of downtime at home。 Really accessible and comprehensive at the same time - which is hard to do。
Sronti
，
It is an important book because it was written on the fly， but because it was written on the fly it couldn't go as deep as Crashed。 Still well worth reading。 It is an important book because it was written on the fly， but because it was written on the fly it couldn't go as deep as Crashed。 Still well worth reading。 。。。more
Andreas
，
Nice overview of all that has happened since the beginning of 2020。 Although Tooze enlightened my views on a number of topics， like the monetary-fiscal coordination of the response and the rise of China， I couldn't help but feel that "Crashed" had a deeper impact on me。 Of course that could have something to do with the fact that I have been following Tooze's writings on his blog and on Twitter ever since "Crashed"。 Still one of the sharpest intellectuals of the moment。 Nice overview of all that has happened since the beginning of 2020。 Although Tooze enlightened my views on a number of topics， like the monetary-fiscal coordination of the response and the rise of China， I couldn't help but feel that "Crashed" had a deeper impact on me。 Of course that could have something to do with the fact that I have been following Tooze's writings on his blog and on Twitter ever since "Crashed"。 Still one of the sharpest intellectuals of the moment。 。。。more
Mordechai Weiss
，
Reading a history book while actually living that History in Real-Time is quite an experience。 The author did a great job explaining the economic aspect of Covid。 It was a real eye-opener for me。
David Mihalyi
，
Adam Tooze is a first class thinker on matters of finance， globalization and political economy， so I jumped to the book as it came out。 But in contrast to his earlier work on past crisis （the 2008 financial crisis， or that of inter-war Germany）， this was written while the Covid crisis it discusses is still unfolding。 This near-present historical account is what I took issue with。1/ Reading how the COVID-crisis unfolded is quite boring。 Much of the stories/facts highlighted are ones that I vividl Adam Tooze is a first class thinker on matters of finance， globalization and political economy， so I jumped to the book as it came out。 But in contrast to his earlier work on past crisis （the 2008 financial crisis， or that of inter-war Germany）， this was written while the Covid crisis it discusses is still unfolding。 This near-present historical account is what I took issue with。1/ Reading how the COVID-crisis unfolded is quite boring。 Much of the stories/facts highlighted are ones that I vividly remember reading （only 12-18 months ago） in the press and on social media and in various commentary since。 This is especially true of the depiction of the epidemic's timeline， various national policy responses， economic impacts， vaccine developments。 Discussion of financial sector events is somewhat richer， highlights a lot more lesser known facts。 Overall， such broad stroke depiction of events may be fascinating when telling story of 1918 flu， but not in this case。2/ Too early to tell。 When the book went to press， we didn't even have final 2020 total deaths or GDP statistics。 Let alone any reliable estimates of global case number， effectiveness of different types of vaccines， health burden。 The economic impacts of the crisis and response are still playing out， inflation picked up a lot more than Keynesians have hoped。 Vaccines are weakening quicker than health authorities expected。 Variants have caused a rethink of our ability for suppressing outbreaks and thresholds for herd immunity。 Newer data on excess deaths and seroprevalence redraws covid maps especially in poorer countries。 There are few academically rigorous （econ， pol sci） studies to rely on when discussing impact of policies， hence interventions are often judged quoting （like-minded） expert opinion on what worked， what was too small or a mistake。 Judgments on political impacts are also too easily made （Politician A saw his polls crash， B faced protests， C lost some bi-elections） without any attempt to consider any counterfactual。 A central and rather bullish conclusion of the book on how China came out stronger geopolitically from the crisis could be be shattered if much of the world came to believe the virus originated from a lab leak （consensus on this moved severely after book was published）。 3/ On the plus side。 The book offers a very compelling grand narrative on what we learned about the role of the state and its capacity to respond to the crisis。 The central insight is how technocratic institutions （especially central banks， IFIs， Min Fins） have become bolder and have experimented with tools previously only advocated by radical （Keynesian） thinkers。 Though Tooze is a Keynesian himself， he is worried that these tools are being used by centrist and conservative governments often to preserve the status quo， rather than to advance progressive goals。 This leaves him rather pessimistic about developments especially those in Europe。 But he is also more optimistic than most about the prospect for emerging economies （especially China） which may able to use their newly found state powers in a multi-polar world。 I am sympathetic to many of Tooze's core claims and much of the hypothesis he presented may well hold true。 He has also advanced many of these arguments in his recent Op-Eds， another reason the book felt somewhat repetitive。 So maybe in 5 years time， this book will be dubbed a piece of prophecy。 But I wish it was written a bit later and my reading came a lot later。 。。。more
John
，